Terrorist group survival: Ideology, tactics, and base of operations
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چکیده
The paper applies survival analysis to identify the determinants of terrorist group duration. Our sample includes 367 terrorist organizations that operated during 1970–2007. Consistent with the theory, determinants of these groups’ survival include their tactics, size, ideological basis, region of operation, and base-country characteristics. Cross-sectional and panel estimates are provided. Terrorist groups that diversify their attacks, rely more on domestic attacks, and possess large membership live longer. Religious terrorist groups fare better, as do groups located in the Middle East and North Africa. Groups’ longevity is bolstered by democratic institutions and an intermediate level of ethnic fractionalization at home.
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